Bitcoin Price Analysis Faces Rejection at $31K as EFT-Induced Rally Fades

Bitcoin price has failed to start a fresh rally past the crucial resistance level of $31,000 as macroeconomic headwinds intensify. The crypto leader has slipped by nearly 1% in the past week but remains 11% higher in the month to date. BTC’s price has also remained 82.70% higher in the year to date. The digital asset was up by 1.28% at $30,276.20 at press time.

Disappointing Jobs Data

The global crypto market was in the red on Friday as investors digested the latest jobs data in the US and the FOMC’s meeting minutes. The global crypto market cap has dropped by more than 3% over the past 24 hours to $1.17 trillion, while the total crypto market volume increased by 6%. Bitcoin’s dominance has remained barely unchanged at 49.88%.

The June meeting Minutes by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released on Wednesday showed that the Fed officials expect further interest rate hikes this year. According to the minutes, policymakers agreed to leave rates unchanged in June on the back of concerns about overtightening. Out of the 18 participants, all but two anticipated at least one interest rate hike this year, while twelve members expect two or more hikes.

The June report by the US Labor Department showed that nonfarm payrolls increased less than expected in June and cooled down in growth compared to May. Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 209,000 in June, while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.6%. Additionally, the US Bureau of Statistics reported a decrease in the number of job openings on the last business day of May to 9.8 million. The US initial jobless claims also came in higher-than-expected in the past week to 248K, up from 236K in the past week.

Following the jobs data, traders are expecting the central bank to resume its interest rate hike campaign later this month. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in a 92% chance that the Fed will hike its rates by 25 basis points. An environment of higher interest rates will be bearish for the crypto prices, more so the Bitcoin price.

Bitcoin Price Technical Analysis

The Bitcoin price has been struggling to move past the $31K level for the past few days on the back of potential interest rate hikes by the Fed. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has declined from a Greed level of 63 to a neutral level of 59, hinting at a decline in confidence by investors. The digital asset has continued to move above the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages, while its Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains at 59.

As such, I expect the Bitcoin price to hold steady above the important $30K level in the medium term as it struggles to find direction. A flip above the major hurdle at $31,000 will have the buyers eyeing the next resistance at $32,395. On the flip side, a drop below the bullish support level at $29,588.85 will invalidate the bullish view.

BTC Price Chart

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