Bitcoin price has been range-bound for close to three weeks now. Evidently, investors are cautiously optimistic about the crypto market. As at the time of writing, BTC/USD was down by 1.38% at $22,922.45.
Fundamentals
On the one hand, a decline in the crypto’s transfers between exchanges has continued to offer support to the asset.
The drop in both the winthdrawals and deposits from crypto exchanges does not necessarily have much to do with bitcoin price movements. Instead, it highlights the market sentiment. In particular, investors appear optimistic about the crypto market.
A look at the crypto fear & greed index shows a shift in the mood from fear to greed in recent sessions. Last month, the index was at an extreme fear level of 25. Interestingly, it has improved from a neutral of 54 on Tuesday to a greed level of 58 on Wednesday.
Even so, investors are evidently cautious as financial market are yet to fully price in a hawkish Fed. While inflationary pressures appear to be easing, a strong US labor market points to further interest rate hikes in coming months. As is the case of other risk assets, an environment of high interest rates is rather bearish for cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin price prediction
A look at its weekly chart indicates that BTC/USD has been trading between the 25 and 50-day EMAs for the fourth week in a row. Indeed, I expect this trend to continue for a while longer.
Narrow it to a four-hour chart and bitcoin price is hovering around 23,127.78; the point that the 25 and 50-day EMAs have converged. Seeing that the short term moving average has remained above the medium-term one since the beginning of 2023, it will be interesting to see the formation that the two indicators make.
A death cross may have the bears test the steadiness of the support at 22,308.52. Below that level, the bulls will be keen on defending the crucial support at 22,000.
On the flip side, a golden cross, which will occur if the 25-day EMA rises above the 50-day one may give the bulls an opportunity to retest the resistance at 23, 515.90. However, even with a rebound past that level, I still expect the crucial level of 24,000 to offer steady resistance to bitcoin price for a while longer.
