Copper price ended the first trading week of 2023 in the green following the release of the US jobs data and subsequent easing of the dollar. As the market digests the report, the metal’s supply/demand dynamics will also be at play in the coming week.
Fundamentals
As is the case with other commodities, Goldman Sachs forecast that copper price will be subject to significant rallying in 2023. In particular, the investment bank predicts that the red metal may hit a fresh record high of $11,000. The forecast is founded on the expected tight supply and growth in demand.
With regards to growth demand, investors are largely betting on China’s reopening. Seeing that the Asian country is the leading consumer of industrial metals, easing of COVID-19 restrictions is set to boost copper price. According to Commerzbank Research, “Economic activity could see a significant recovery in Q2, or even as soon as March, much earlier than previously expected by us and the markets”.
However, with the expected increase in mobility during the Lunar New Year festivities, the nation may continue to experience a surge in COVID-19 cases and economic disruptions. Indeed, this factor, coupled with the persistent concerns over a global recession, are largely behind copper price’s curbed gains.
At the same time, the US jobs data released on Friday will likely remain an influential factor in the initial sessions of the coming week. The released numbers showed that the US economy added jobs at a slower yet steady rate in December last year. A shift in consumer habits, coupled with high interest rates, were largely behind the gradual cooling. In reaction to the report, the dollar index pulled back to end the week at $103.91; down by 1.18%. Similar to other dollar-priced assets, the decline boosted copper price.
Copper price prediction
The red metal ended the week in the green after rebounding from the 5-week low it hit earlier in the week at 3.71. The COMEX futures concluded Friday’s session at $3.91; up by 2.36%.
As seen on its daily chart, the asset was trading above the 25 and 50-day exponential moving averages. While this technical indicators are a bullish sign, copper price may remain subject to curbed gains in the coming week; a prediction supported by the fundamentals.
In particular, the bulls will need to gather enough momentum to break the resistance at 3.96 if they are to have a chance to retest the once steady support at 4.00. On the lower side, support levels of 3.78 and 3.72 will be worth watching in the coming week. However, a move below that level will invalidate this cautiously bullish thesis.
